Fear of 'catastrophic' sea-level rise as ice sheets melt faster than predicted

Glaciologists fear they may have seriously underestimated the potential for melting ice sheets to contribute to catastrophic sea-level rises in coming decades which could see increases of a metre or more by 2100.

The ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica contain about 99.5 per cent of the Earth's glacier ice and could raise sea levels by 65 metres if they melted completely – although experts think this is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, a survey of the world's top 26 glaciologists found most believe melting of the ice sheets could be more rapid and severe than previously estimated. They believe that melting of the ice sheets alone this century would be likely to raise the average global sea level by 29cm, the poll found, but there is a five per cent chance of it increasing even further by a catastrophic 84cm.

This would take the total sea-level increase to well over a metre if other factors such as the thermal expansion of oceans and runoff from mountain glaciers are taken into account.

"Our analysis shows the biggest uncertainty when it comes to sea levels is the contribution from the ice sheets," said Professor Jonathan Bamber of Bristol University, lead author of the study published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

"It shows glaciologists believe there is a one-in-20 chance of sea levels rising by a metre or more by 2100, and a metre rise in sea level is really very serious.

"The impacts of sea-level rise of this magnitude are potentially severe, implying a conceivable risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people within this century."

Rising sea levels are one of the greatest uncertainties of climate change. A warmer world causes oceans to expand thermally but also leads to faster melting of mountain glaciers and some regions of the polar ice sheets. More

Climate Inaction Is a Clear Failure of Democracy

UXBRIDGE, Canada, Jan 4 2013 (IPS) - Around the world, 2012 was the year of extreme weather, when we unequivocally learned that the fossil fuel energy that powers our societies is destroying them. Accepting this reality is the biggest challenge of the brand new year.

Re-engineering our societies and lifestyles to prosper on green alternatives is the penultimate challenge of this decade.

There is no more important task for all of us to engage in because climate change affects everything from food to water availability.

A number of scientific analyses have demonstrated we already have the technology to re-engineer our society to thrive on green alternative energy. The newest of these was published Wednesday in the prestigious journal Nature. It plainly states that politics is the real barrier, not technology nor cost. (It is far cheaper to act than not.)

Keeping global warming to less than two degrees C is mainly dependent on “when countries will begin to take serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”, according to the study “Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation”.

Climate change has already pushed global temperatures up 0.8 degrees C, with significant consequences. No climate scientist thinks two degrees C will be “safe”. Many countries, especially least-developed countries and small island states, want the global target to be less than 1.5C of heating. Even then large portions of the Arctic and Antarctic will continue to melt raising sea levels, albeit at a slower rate.

Delay in making the shift to non-fossil fuel energy sources will be very costly. Waiting until 2020 to curb global emissions will cost twice as much compared with peaking emissions by 2015, the Nature analysis shows. More

 

 

Why Socities Collapse - Jared Diamond

 

2012 was UK's second wettest year on record thanks to climate change

The past 12 months were the second wettest on record in the UK, according to data released by the Met Office.

The total rainfall for the UK during 2012 was 1,330.7mm (52.4in), just 6.6mm short of the record set in 2000.

Most areas were affected by the extreme weather, with thousands of homes flooded and farmers struggling to grow crops in the saturated soil.

The latest data comes as analysis says the frequency of extreme rainfall in the UK may be increasing.

BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin said statistics showed that days of particularly heavy rainfall had become more common since 1960.

The study into extreme rain was based on statistics from the National Climate Information Centre, the UK's official climate record.

The Met Office said this was the wettest year on record for England, the third wettest for Wales, the 17th wettest on record for Scotland and the 40th wettest for Northern Ireland.

The records date back to 1910.

Continue reading the main story

The Met Office added that four of the top five wettest years had occurred since 2000.

"The trend towards more extreme rainfall events is one we are seeing around the world, in countries such as India and China, and now potentially here in the UK," said Met Office chief scientist Prof Julia Slingo.

"Much more research is needed to understand more about the causes and potential implications."

Most areas in the UK experienced flooding during 2012, affecting thousands of homes and businesses.

In the run-up to Christmas, South-West England was particularly badly affected, with a number of railway lines remaining closed over the entire festive period.

The Environment Agency said almost 8,000 properties in England and Wales were flooded during 2012 and it sent more than 200,000 warnings to households and businesses.

However, it added that flood defences had protected more than 200,000 properties in at-risk areas. More

 

Global warming affects Latin American, Caribbean economies

Losses could reach US$100 billion per year, according to the IDB.


BOGOTÁ, Colombia – Melting glaciers in the Andes.

Coral bleaching in the Caribbean Sea.

Extreme rains in Colombia and in the basin of the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers, shared by Guatemala and Mexico.

They are all evidence of the impact climate change is having on Latin America and the Caribbean.

A group of researchers from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), sought to quantify the economic impact caused by climate change in the region.

The final report, titled “The Climate and Development Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean: Options for Climate Resilient Low Carbon Development,” shows that a temperature increase of 2°C relative to the levels seen prior to the industrial revolution could have an annual economic impact of about US$100 billion by 2050.

The study shows the biggest losses will come from the decline in agricultural exports, rising sea levels, reduced hydropower production in Brazil, coral bleaching and the loss of biomass in the Amazon rainforest.

The multibillion-dollar figure does not include the loss of biodiversity in the region, which covers six of the most diverse countries in the world in terms of flora and fauna: Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Mexico.

Melting glaciers

Meanwhile, glaciers melting in the Andes could affect the water supply reaching cities and agricultural operations, among other impacts.

In Chile, 70% of the water supplied to the population comes from glaciers, according to a study by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).

“The tropical glaciers of the Andes are melting at a speed that may compromise glaciers located less than 5,000 meters (16,404 feet) above sea level in the next 20 years,” says Walter Vergara, the head of the Climate Change and Sustainability Division at the IDB and leader of the study. “Over the last two decades, approximately 25% of these remaining glaciers have disappeared.”

The resulting rise in sea levels could threaten mangroves, compromising the birthplace of a variety of species in countries such as Ecuador, Brazil and Colombia.

In addition, the phenomenon would damage roads, ports and housing, according to the IDB.

The United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN-HABITAT) has calculated that Latin America and the Caribbean are home to 27% of the 3,351 cities located less than 10 meters (32.8 feet) above sea level.

In the Caribbean region alone, a one-meter rise in sea level would cost US$68.2 billion by 2080 – equivalent to 8.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the period – due to the costs of rebuilding infrastructure, relocation and the loss of territory, according to the report titled “Turn Down the Heat,” published by the World Bank in November.

Climate change is expected to provoke changes in soil characteristics and precipitation levels, affecting the cultivation of wheat and oilseeds, such as soybeans, Vergara says.

The melting glaciers in the Andes may affect the supply of water reaching cities and agriculture. (Andina/AFP)

Annual losses in the region’s agricultural exports are expected to reach between US$32 billion to US$54 billion by 2050, according to the IDB.

Vergara said the impact on the Amazon region is the most important consequence of climate changes in South America.

Known in the international scientific community as the Amazon dieback, the loss of Amazon biomass as a result of climate change could result in a reduction of water for agriculture.

“If the Amazon dieback happens, and there is evidence that it is already happening, the quantity of the water that the forest injects into the atmosphere would be impacted, which could affect agriculture in southern Brazil, northern Argentina and Uruguay,” Vergara says. “The impact on the Amazon basin will have local, regional and global consequences.”

Vulnerability of the region

Climate change will cause a significant impact on the region because its consequences are in addition to other effects from human activities.

“Deforestation, pollution and urban expansion also represent a major threat to the quality of life in Latin America,” says Rodney Martínez, the director of the International Research Center on El Niño (CIIFEN), which is located in Ecuador.

Vulnerability to these impacts does not depend solely on geographical factors.

“The major challenges that make the region so vulnerable are related to governance, social and economic factors, such as poverty levels and the region’s dependence on natural resources,” Martínez says.

The World Bank reports that 149 million people in Latin America and the Caribbean live on less than US$4 per day.

“Poverty and inequality, which are persistent problems in the region despite its economic growth, may be aggravated by the impacts from climate change,” says Mayte Gonzalez, a consultant for the Regional Gateway for Technology Transfer and Climate Change Action in Latin America and the Caribbean (REGATTA), located in Panama. More

Reflections On COP 18 IN Doha: Negotiators Made Only Incremental Progress

Expectations were low for this year’s UNFCCC climate negotiations in Doha, Qatar (COP 18), which concluded on Saturday 8^th December. It was scheduled to be a “finalise-the-rules” type of COP, rather than one focused on large, political deals that went into the early hours of the morning. Key issues on the table included finalising the rules for the Kyoto Protocol’s second commitment period; concluding a series of decisions on transparency, finance, adaptation, and forests (REDD+); and agreeing on a work plan to negotiate a new legally binding international climate agreement by 2015. The emissions gap was also front-and-centre, as the newUNEP Gap Report showed that countries are further away than even a year ago from the goal of keeping global average temperature rise below 2°C.

In the end, countries were successful in making progress, but only incrementally. The lack of political will was breathtaking, particularly in light of recent extreme weather events.

Here’s a look at what happened across nine key issues that were on the table:

1) Durban Platform

Along with the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol, the Durban Platform was the star of 2011’s COP 17. Two main components make up the Platform: increasing ambition immediately and negotiating a new legally binding international climate agreement by 2015 for the post-2020 time period.

COP 18 continued with these issues. In regards to increasing ambition before 2020, some countries – such as the Dominican Republic and Lebanon – did come forward with ambitious new pledges to reduce emissions. This was a welcome surprise, but the hope that Gulf region countries would take such a step unfortunately never came to fruition.

In order to try to build pressure for greater ambition, the Secretary General will host a Heads of State summit in 2014. Hopefully this will inspire countries to put more on the table by then. This summit corresponds with an important review of implementation under the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol, as well as the release of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report.

Since 2005, countries have been negotiating in two tracks – the Kyoto Protocol and the Long-term Cooperative Action (LCA) group. As of Doha, those two tracks are closed – importantly, countries can now focus their full attention negotiating a new 2015 agreement under the Durban Platform. The basic outline of the agreement details three core components – legally binding, widest possible participation by all Parties, and staying below 2°C – even possibly 1.5°C. In Doha, countries agreed that 2013 should focus on a few key issues. They agreed to submit their positions on items like what other agreements the UNFCCC can learn from; what the scope, structure, and design of the agreement should be; and importantly, which principles should guide the agreement. This latter point enables a discussion on equity (see below), which remains a core principle and discussion in these talks. There will also likely be additional sessions in 2013, enabling countries to go deep and figure out how they will move forward together.

2) Kyoto Protocol

At COP 17 in Durban, the EU agreed to a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol (KP2), but there was no time to finalise all the rules. In Doha, the rules for that second commitment period were finally agreed upon, allowing it to move forward for another eight-year period (2013-2020). While countries who have joined this second commitment period (including the EU, Australia, Switzerland, and Norway) only contribute 15% of global emissions, this is an important step in that it maintains the only legally binding instrument under the UNFCCC.

With the new legal arrangement, these countries will be able to begin implementing their new commitments from January 1, 2013 without any gaps. KP2 also features an ambition trigger, which requests that KP2 Parties revisit and increase their commitments by 2014 (rather than 2015) in line with the 25-40% emissions reductions called for by the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. This issue will be considered at a high-level ministerial roundtable in 2014. In addition, developing countries were granted an increase of the “Share of Proceeds,” a means to use a percentage of the revenue generated by carbon market mechanisms to help developing countries meet the cost of climate change adaptation.

For non-KP2 Parties (e.g. Canada, Japan, Russia, New Zealand), negotiators agreed to restrict those Parties’ eligibility to the Protocol’s flexible market mechanisms. In other words, although they can “participate” in clean development mechanism (CDM) projects, they cannot “transfer” or “acquire” the resulting units; only KP2 countries can trade such units. Another key issue was how many “surplus of emission allowances” a country could carry over from the first to the second commitment period without jeopardising the environmental integrity of the market. Countries decided to further restrict the trading and retirement of units generated from the flexible market mechanisms. This means that although a country will be allowed to carry over 100% of its surplus, it must happen under the following conditions:

• Any surplus will be put into a new emission allowance account called the “Previous Period Surplus Reserve;”
• A country will only be able to use this allowance if it exceeds its allowed emission (or assigned amount), and if its new emissions target is more ambitious than in the previous period; and
• There is a limit to the number of emission allowances (units) countries can trade.

In addition, many countries stated publicly in Doha that they do not plan to purchase any such units.

While it is important to have the Kyoto Protocol moving forward – even with a smaller group of countries than under the first period – the key question now is how the Protocol’s structure and rules will impact the new negotiation track and how much this model will influence the post-2020 architecture. More

 

Climate Change Is Taking Place 'Before Our Eyes'

 

When in September the Arctic sea ice that freezes and melts each year shrank to its lowest extent ever recorded and then contracted a further 500,000 sq km, the small world of ice scientists was shocked.

This was unprecedented, yet there was nothing unusual about the meteorological conditions in the Arctic in 2012, no vast storms to break up the ice, or heatwave to hasten the retreat.

Only widespread warming of the atmosphere could have been responsible for less ice growth during the winter and more ice melt during the summer, the scientists concluded.

It was, said the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), just one of dozens of major physical events in 2012 that convinced many people that the extremes have become normal.

The most dramatic event was possibly hurricane Sandy, which swept through the Caribbean and up the east coast of the United States, leaving hundreds dead and thousands without power or shelter.

But just a few weeks later it was possibly surpassed in strength by super-typhoon Bopha, which roared across Mindanao in the Philippines killing at least 900 people and leaving hundreds of thousands of people displaced.

Typhoons aren’t unusual in the Philippines or the US, but both of these were well outside their normal timescale and location.

Officially, said the WMO, the first 10 months of 2012 were the ninth-warmest since records began in the mid-19th century, with early months cooled by a La Niña weather event in the Pacific. In addition, 2012 broke the record for carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere.

Governments saw records tumble almost every season. According to Nasa, it’s now been 28 years since the globe experienced temperatures cooler than the 1951-1980 average. Globally, 10 of the 11 hottest years have now been in the last 11 years.

The US was on course to experience by far its hottest year on record. Nearly 15,000 new daily heat records were set and Europe had its warmest spring ever recorded.

Heatwaves, droughts, floods and hurricanes battered vulnerable countries. “The danger signs are all around. One-third of the world’s population lives in countries with moderate to high water stress; land degradation affects 1.5 billion people. Ice caps are showing unprecedented melting, permafrost is thawing, sea levels are rising. The abnormal is now the new normal,” said UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon.

Former US vice-president Al Gore backed this up: “Every night on the news now, practically, is like a nature hike through the Book of Revelation.”

“Far-reaching changes [are] taking place on Earth’s oceans and biosphere. Climate change is taking place before our eyes and will continue to do so as a result of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which have risen constantly and again reached new records,” said Michel Jarraud, head of the Geneva-based WMO. More